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May 2003 |
Silicon Valley BuzzSupported
by The Hoffman Agency China The Evolution of the Wired World Through a Looking Glass How in the world did we survive in 1992? And no, we haven't entirely made it to the future world of high technology. But it's easy to forget how far we have come. "What was it like in '92?'' "No browser. No www. There was no Web Guild. How did we ever get along?'' How indeed. In 1992 technology was not used by your average non-geek consumer. In 1992, cell phones were a rarity. You could actually walk down the street and not have to steer around distracted pedestrians yakking incessantly with goodness knows who. But heaven help you if an early adopter dropped his cell phone on your foot. The things weighed about 50 pounds. Most people didn't have e-mail yet, and that's kind of an odd thing. But they didn't have spam, either. Color printing and color monitors were rare in 1992. Things like caller ID didn't exist. There was no MPEG, meaning no digital downloads of music. Everybody was walking around with Sony Walkmans. There was no concept of PDAs. The Newton hadn't come out. Handspring and Palm didn't exist. Just shoot me now. Sure, these
are bad times. The country is at war. The economy is in ruins. And look what's happened since, in the area of technology alone: The Web as mass medium, practical cell phones, ubiquitous e-mail, digital photography, personal digital assistants, MP3 players. Add to that advances in memory, storage, software and, OK, caller ID. Those advances -- and the work on them -- all created jobs. They (for the most part) made life better and put in our hands the tools for us to realize interests and talents we might otherwise not have found. There is no reason to believe that the next 10 years won't bring changes of similar magnitude, perhaps in areas we haven't even considered.
Because of the war with Iraq, people see a connection between our country's foreign policy, international trade and their livelihoods. So, what will we tell our children about this inflection point in history and what it meant to their parents' careers and their own prospects? In the middle of this chaos, it's tempting to say nothing will ever be the same just because every day is unsettling right now. Here are some workplace-related lessons that have emerge from looking at the our current international situation. 1. We are more interdependent on other countries than ever before. A number of people seem frozen in their tracks because of the interdependency. Their companies have banned travel to Asia because of the respiratory disease outbreak. Hopes for an economic turnaround have been suspended because of the war, and budgets and ordinary business travel have been cut. Workers who deal with customers and colleagues overseas tell me they struggle to maintain personal relationships in the face of so much disapproval of U.S. policy. Being the only superpower doesn't protect us from being buffeted by international opinion and business conditions -- in fact, our stand-alone status seems to be contributing to the impact, because we are such a target. The lesson: More than ever, we must think globally in our work. 2. Technology is not the "must-have'' solution we once thought it was. True, there are certain applications of technology that continue to be essential for companies to be competitive in such parlous times -- supply chain management software, for example. But for the last several years, we've seen technology purchases and upgrades put off again and again by companies closely managing their costs. The lesson: Silicon Valley isn't quite the center of the universe, and our companies are subject to the same forces faced by more conventional industries. Employment in technology is not the safe haven we had grown accustomed to. 3. The basics of career self-management will always apply. The job situation is much worse than statistics have shown, because so many people are under-employed or have exhausted their unemployment benefits or have stopped looking for work. The lesson: We have received a very unpleasant reminder that it is dangerous to overlook the basics. A network is important, for support and in a job search. The quality of your network is still the best predictor of success in job-hunting. Doing what you love helps compensate for lack of financial reward or promotion. Saving money is not old-fashioned. 4. Sometimes, the tortoise wins. A few people didn't chase start-up riches or managed not to become overly dependent on the technology boom, but kept moving ahead steadily along their career path. Others have managed to look back on their start-up fling as an important learning opportunity, which caused them to be more flexible and creative. Even if their companies went under, they grew from the experience. The lesson:
In the excitement of the moment, don't forget the long view of your
career. Wireless Industry Argues Against Letting Customers Keep Cell Numbers when Switching Carriers Cell phone companies asked a federal court Tuesday to block a regulation that would force them to let consumers keep their phone numbers when switching wireless carriers. Consumer advocates say not being able to retain numbers is one of the biggest barriers preventing more cell phone users from switching in search of better service and prices. Wireless companies say the Federal Communications Commission requirement and its Nov. 24 deadline will raise costs while doing little to increase industry competition. "It's very speculative to say this even offers consumer benefits,'' said Andrew McBride, an attorney representing Verizon Wireless and the Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association, an industry group. McBride told the three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia that the FCC overstepped its authority by imposing the requirement. A court ruling is not expected for several months. Congress decided in 1996 that people can keep their traditional local phone numbers when they change phone companies. The FCC decided that wireless carriers would have to offer the same service in the top 100 U.S. cities by June 1999. The FCC has extended that deadline three times, most recently granting a yearlong extension last summer after Verizon Wireless asked the commission to eliminate the requirement. "Many consumers tell us that they are not satisfied with their wireless service, but they are unwilling to switch because they can't take their numbers with them,'' said Chris Murray, an attorney for Consumers Union, publisher of Consumer Reports magazine. He said small businesses and self-employed people are particularly harmed when switching carriers because they lose numbers known by their customers. "Wireless companies will have stronger incentives to provide better service and lower prices if consumers can take their numbers,'' Murray said. Most wireless companies argue that their industry is competitive enough and doesn't need a regulatory boost. They say there are about 145 million U.S. cell phone subscribers and about a third of them change carriers each year. "The wireless industry is the most competitive telecommunications market on the planet,'' McBride said after the hearing. He said the expense of providing the number switching service will make it harder to provide better cell phone coverage and cheaper phones. The wireless industry estimates that the requirement will cost more than $1 billion in the first year and $500 million each year thereafter. Many cell phone users outside the United States, in places such as Britain, Australia and Hong Kong, already have the option of keeping their numbers when they switch carriers.
There's nothing quite like a computer security convention to stoke your impending sense of doom. Amid war and pestilence, the most gloomy sector of the high-tech economy gathered for the RSA Conference and Expo in San Francisco on Monday to remind us that it's worse than we think. Oddly enough, it's this depressing sector which has generated the most optimism for an increase in tech spending. While most of the tech industry is still in the dumps, the conference and trade show to promote digital security products and services generated plenty of interest this year, with attendance estimated at about 10,000. The combination of war in Iraq, terrorism threats and recent hacker attacks have heightened awareness -- and worries -- over the security of computer networks. The CERT Coordination
Center, a computer security institute, has said we're living in
the "Golden Age of Hacking.'' Internet attacks were up 56 percent
last year and vulnerability was up 70 percent, he said, citing CERT
statistics. Hackers and other miscreants have figured out a way
to hack your ATM. And some worry that it's now possible to create
a "black hole on the Internet'' and bring the whole network
down for days.
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